Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Sunday 19 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 38937 (+1804) 737384 (+28184) 67438 (+7459) 631009 (+18921)
Italy 23227 (+482) 175925 (+3491) 44927 (+2200) 107771 (+809)
Spain 20639 (+637) 194416 (+3577) 74797 (+0) 98980 (+2940)
France 19323 (+642) 151793 (+3824) 35983 (+1563) 96487 (+1619)
United Kingdom 15464 (+888) 114217 (+5525) 0 (+0) 98753 (+4637)
Belgium 5453 (+290) 37183 (+1045) 8348 (+387) 23382 (+368)
Iran 5031 (+73) 80868 (+1374) 55987 (+1923) 19850 (-622)
China 4632 (+0) 82719 (+27) 77029 (-915) 1058 (+942)
Germany 4477 (+125) 143475 (+2078) 85400 (+2286) 53598 (-333)
Netherlands 3601 (+142) 31589 (+1140) 250 (+0) 27738 (+998)
Brazil 2361 (+220) 36722 (+3040) 14026 (+0) 20335 (+2820)
Turkey 1890 (+121) 82329 (+3783) 10453 (+1822) 69986 (+1840)
Sweden 1511 (+111) 13822 (+606) 550 (+0) 11761 (+495)
Canada 1470 (+160) 33383 (+1741) 11207 (+879) 20706 (+702)
Switzerland 1368 (+41) 27404 (+326) 17100 (+700) 8936 (-415)
Portugal 687 (+30) 19685 (+663) 610 (+91) 18388 (+542)
Ireland 571 (+41) 14758 (+778) 77 (+0) 14110 (+737)
Mexico 546 (+60) 6875 (+578) 2125 (+0) 4204 (+518)
Indonesia 535 (+15) 6248 (+325) 631 (+24) 5082 (+286)
India 521 (+35) 15722 (+1370) 2463 (+422) 12738 (+913)
Ecuador 456 (+35) 9022 (+572) 1008 (+170) 7558 (+367)
Austria 443 (+12) 14671 (+76) 10214 (+510) 4014 (-446)
Romania 421 (+10) 8418 (+351) 1730 (+222) 6267 (+119)
Philippines 397 (+10) 6087 (+209) 516 (+29) 5174 (+170)
Algeria 367 (+3) 2534 (+116) 894 (+48) 1273 (+65)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 155846 (+6354) 2245679 (+80336) 518150 (+25664)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 157393 ( +5300) 2233225 ( +48139) 535041 ( +23589)
Mon 20 April 2020 162305 ( +4912) 2276817 ( +43592) 557270 ( +22229)
Tue 21 April 2020 166826 ( +4521) 2316108 ( +39291) 578040 ( +20770)
Wed 22 April 2020 170962 ( +4136) 2351372 ( +35264) 597292 ( +19253)
Thu 23 April 2020 174724 ( +3762) 2382903 ( +31531) 615008 ( +17716)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 4632 (+0) 82719 (+27) 77029 (-915)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 3359 ( +0) 81299 ( +0) 76834 ( +12)
Mon 20 April 2020 3359 ( +0) 81299 ( +0) 76844 ( +11)
Tue 21 April 2020 3359 ( +0) 81299 ( +0) 76854 ( +9)
Wed 22 April 2020 3359 ( +0) 81299 ( +0) 76862 ( +8)
Thu 23 April 2020 3359 ( +0) 81299 ( +0) 76869 ( +7)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 20639 (+637) 194416 (+3577) 74797 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 19702 ( +176) 185743 ( +1336) 76430 ( +1165)
Mon 20 April 2020 19851 ( +149) 186882 ( +1138) 77412 ( +982)
Tue 21 April 2020 19976 ( +125) 187849 ( +968) 78234 ( +823)
Wed 22 April 2020 20082 ( +106) 188671 ( +822) 78921 ( +687)
Thu 23 April 2020 20170 ( +89) 189368 ( +696) 79492 ( +571)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 23227 (+482) 175925 (+3491) 44927 (+2200)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 22366 ( +194) 168816 ( +1164) 44704 ( +1321)
Mon 20 April 2020 22535 ( +170) 169844 ( +1029) 45951 ( +1247)
Tue 21 April 2020 22684 ( +149) 170752 ( +908) 47121 ( +1171)
Wed 22 April 2020 22814 ( +130) 171552 ( +800) 48215 ( +1094)
Thu 23 April 2020 22927 ( +113) 172257 ( +704) 49234 ( +1018)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 15464 (+888) 114217 (+5525) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 15502 ( +481) 115246 ( +3417) 145 ( +3)
Mon 20 April 2020 15917 ( +415) 118318 ( +3072) 149 ( +3)
Tue 21 April 2020 16272 ( +355) 121061 ( +2743) 152 ( +4)
Wed 22 April 2020 16572 ( +301) 123494 ( +2433) 156 ( +4)
Thu 23 April 2020 16826 ( +253) 125640 ( +2146) 160 ( +4)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 38937 (+1804) 737384 (+28184) 67438 (+7459)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 41309 ( +2620) 729365 ( +15896) 72908 ( +6535)
Mon 20 April 2020 43816 ( +2507) 743287 ( +13922) 79702 ( +6794)
Tue 21 April 2020 46184 ( +2368) 755408 ( +12121) 86695 ( +6994)
Wed 22 April 2020 48393 ( +2209) 765908 ( +10500) 93823 ( +7127)
Thu 23 April 2020 50431 ( +2038) 774963 ( +9055) 101012 ( +7189)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 19323 (+642) 151793 (+3824) 35983 (+1563)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 19181 ( +403) 155621 ( +1994) 44144 ( +3492)
Mon 20 April 2020 19526 ( +345) 157331 ( +1710) 47935 ( +3792)
Tue 21 April 2020 19819 ( +293) 158791 ( +1461) 52052 ( +4117)
Wed 22 April 2020 20067 ( +248) 160035 ( +1244) 56523 ( +4471)
Thu 23 April 2020 20275 ( +209) 161092 ( +1057) 61378 ( +4855)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 4477 (+125) 143475 (+2078) 85400 (+2286)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 4501 ( +139) 140049 ( +982) 85949 ( +2414)
Mon 20 April 2020 4625 ( +123) 140886 ( +837) 88050 ( +2101)
Tue 21 April 2020 4733 ( +108) 141599 ( +713) 89863 ( +1813)
Wed 22 April 2020 4827 ( +94) 142205 ( +606) 91417 ( +1554)
Thu 23 April 2020 4908 ( +81) 142719 ( +514) 92740 ( +1324)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 3601 (+142) 31589 (+1140) 250 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 3476 ( +60) 30871 ( +534) 250 ( +0)
Mon 20 April 2020 3528 ( +52) 31351 ( +479) 250 ( +0)
Tue 21 April 2020 3573 ( +44) 31778 ( +428) 250 ( +0)
Wed 22 April 2020 3611 ( +38) 32159 ( +381) 250 ( +0)
Thu 23 April 2020 3643 ( +32) 32497 ( +338) 250 ( +0)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 5453 (+290) 37183 (+1045) 8348 (+387)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 5603 ( +223) 36705 ( +692) 8190 ( +167)
Mon 20 April 2020 5801 ( +198) 37320 ( +614) 8333 ( +143)
Tue 21 April 2020 5975 ( +174) 37862 ( +543) 8456 ( +122)
Wed 22 April 2020 6126 ( +151) 38339 ( +477) 8559 ( +104)
Thu 23 April 2020 6256 ( +130) 38758 ( +418) 8647 ( +87)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 1511 (+111) 13822 (+606) 550 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 1519 ( +67) 13949 ( +418) 560 ( +20)
Mon 20 April 2020 1580 ( +61) 14342 ( +394) 578 ( +18)
Tue 21 April 2020 1636 ( +55) 14711 ( +369) 594 ( +16)
Wed 22 April 2020 1685 ( +50) 15055 ( +344) 607 ( +14)
Thu 23 April 2020 1729 ( +44) 15375 ( +320) 619 ( +12)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 347 (+15) 8742 (+363) 981 (+115)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 357 ( +14) 8673 ( +206) 1058 ( +91)
Mon 20 April 2020 368 ( +12) 8856 ( +183) 1145 ( +87)
Tue 21 April 2020 379 ( +10) 9019 ( +163) 1226 ( +81)
Wed 22 April 2020 388 ( +9) 9163 ( +143) 1300 ( +74)
Thu 23 April 2020 395 ( +8) 9289 ( +126) 1367 ( +66)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 1368 (+41) 27404 (+326) 17100 (+700)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 1345 ( +21) 26664 ( +109) 16660 ( +262)
Mon 20 April 2020 1364 ( +18) 26756 ( +92) 16873 ( +213)
Tue 21 April 2020 1379 ( +16) 26834 ( +78) 17045 ( +172)
Wed 22 April 2020 1392 ( +13) 26899 ( +66) 17183 ( +138)
Thu 23 April 2020 1404 ( +11) 26955 ( +55) 17294 ( +110)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 5031 (+73) 80868 (+1374) 55987 (+1923)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 4922 ( +45) 81671 ( +1055) 66997 ( +4978)
Mon 20 April 2020 4962 ( +40) 82634 ( +964) 72375 ( +5378)
Tue 21 April 2020 4998 ( +36) 83513 ( +878) 78185 ( +5810)
Wed 22 April 2020 5030 ( +32) 84312 ( +799) 84461 ( +6276)
Thu 23 April 2020 5059 ( +29) 85037 ( +725) 91240 ( +6780)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.